Transport Decarbonization Targets in the GCC: Navigating Climate Ambition and Economic Resilience 

This initiative examines pathways for decarbonizing the transport sector in the GCC, focusing on the transition toward low-carbon and electric mobility within a complex economic and policy context. The transport sector is a major source of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in GCC economies, driven by high vehicle ownership, car-dependent urban development, and long-standing fuel subsidy structures. These dynamics place increasing pressure on public finances and heighten exposure to oil price volatility, underscoring the need for carefully managed reform. 

Rather than treating transport decarbonization as a purely climate or technology issue, the initiative emphasizes the importance of aligning emissions targets with economic realities, fiscal sustainability, and infrastructure readiness. It highlights the risks of poorly sequenced or overly ambitious targets and stresses the need for phased, evidence-based, and nationally tailored transition pathways. 

Using regional benchmarking and long-term scenario analysis through 2050, the study demonstrates that structured decarbonization pathways can significantly reduce emissions while limiting economic disruption. The analysis shows that investments required to scale electric mobility are lower than current transport fuel subsidy expenditures, creating opportunities to reallocate public resources toward cleaner and more productive systems. 

Electric vehicles are assessed as a key enabler of the transition, alongside investments in charging infrastructure, grid upgrades, and renewable energy integration. The initiative also highlights the potential for EVs to support energy system resilience and create new economic opportunities through local value-chain development, job creation, and innovation. 

Overall, the initiative concludes that the GCC can lead the regional shift toward sustainable mobility if transport decarbonization is pursued as a policy-managed, economy-wide transition—one that balances climate ambition with economic resilience, energy security, and long-term diversification.